Pokemon GO


Shinies

This is the output of my wild shiny eligible encounter log script since November 16, 2018, as well as a record of all shinies encountered since that date. The first three lines are the summaries for two accounts labelled "maya" and "mali". I've only kept careful track of the encounters for "maya" but it's a reasonable assumption that second account (used by my daughter) is nearly identical.

The second group of lines are the counts of shiny eligible encounters at different dates (first column) followed by the cumulative count of encounters since start date (second column), count since last date (third column), and the total number of encounters of the shiny eligible species (fourth column). This fourth column of course is not very useful and primarily serves as a sanity check.

The third group of lines is shinies actually encountered. The prefix "s" followed by the date of the encounter(s), followed by four columns of counts (wild shinies-maya, wild shinies-mali, other shinies-maya, other shinies-mali) and then the identities of the shinies. The wild shinies come first and then other shinies (events, community days, shiny meltan, etc.) come after the "|" symbol.

I also have all the raw counts for each shiny eligible species which was processed to generate the data below which I can make available upon request or will put it up at some point.

maya:  33 wild shinies from ~10348 encounters (rate: 313.6) +  66 event/community day shinies = 99 total since 16nov18
mali:  28 wild shinies from ~10348 encounters (rate: 369.6) +  49 event/community day shinies = 77 total since 16nov18
cumulative rate is one wild shiny for every 339.3 encounters

16nov18    0    0 21563
17nov18   63   63 21626
18nov18  208  145 21771
20nov18  284   76 21847
21nov18  379   95 21942
22nov18  535  156 22098
23nov18  572   37 22135
25nov18  730  158 22293
27nov18  784   54 22347
28nov18  829   45 22392
30nov18  877   48 22440
03dec18 1459  582 23022
06dec18 1533   74 23096
12dec18 1679  146 23242
15dec18 1740   61 23303
19dec18 1899  159 23462
26dec18 2169  270 23732
27dec18 2239   70 23802
03jan19 2474  235 24037
11jan19 2622  148 24185
16jan19 2738  116 24301
22jan19 3091  353 24654
27jan19 3283  192 24846
28jan19 3393  110 24956
30jan19 3470   77 25033
04feb19 3619  149 25182
07feb19 3702   83 25265
11feb19 3860  158 25423
17feb19 4092  232 25655
20feb19 4168   76 25731
23feb19 4482  314 26045
28feb19 4658  176 26221
05mar19 4877  219 26440
11mar19 5190  313 26753
20mar19 5572  382 27135
26mar19 5789  217 27352
05apr19 6316  527 27879
11apr19 6497  181 28060
13apr19 6594   97 28157
21apr19 7023  429 28586
22apr19 7247  224 28810
28apr19 7423  176 28986
02may19 7643  220 29206
18may19 8379  736 29942
21may19 8516  137 30079
11jun19 9467  951 31030
15jun19 10348  881 31911

s 16nov18 1 0 0  0  maya: bulb
s 21nov18 2 1 0  0  maya: eeve x 2 | mali: natu
s 23nov18 0 1 0  0  mali: cubo
s 03dec18 0 1 15 8  mali: pine | maya: bulb x 2 + char x 2 + squi + pika x 4 + mare x 5 + drat & mali: char x 2 + squi + pika + larv x 3 + beld - community weekend event
s 15dec18 1 0 0  0  maya: cate
s 16dec18 0 2 0  0  mali: pine + magb
s 27dec18 1 1 0  0  maya: snor & mali: snor
s 10jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: magb
s 12jan19 0 1 8  3  mali: murk | maya: toto x 8 & mali: toto x 3 - community day event
s 19jan19 0 0 3  1  maya: minu | maya: feeb x 3 & mali: feeb - feebas event
s 21jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: minu
s 27jan19 2 1 0  0  maya: psyd + zigz & mali: psyd
s 07feb19 0 1 0  0  mali: murk
s 08feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 11feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 16feb19 0 0 7  7  | maya: swin x 7 & mali swin x 7 - community day
s 20feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: pine
s 23feb19 0 1 3  7  mali: pine | maya: clam x 3 & mali: clam x 6 + latias
s 28feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: eevee
s 10mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: cate
s 20mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: solr
s 23mar19 0 0 3  3  | maya: tree x 3 & mali: tree x 3
s 26mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: aero
s 30mar19 0 0 5  7  | maya: lota x 4 + cast x 1 & mali: lota x 3 + cast x 4 - weather-focussed event
s 05apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: cate
s 11apr19 2 0 0  0 maya: snub + shup
s 13apr19 1 0 5  3 maya: murk | maya: bago x 5 & mali: bago x 3
s 14apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: shel
s 20apr19 0 1 0  0 mali: shuc
s 21apr19 2 1 0  0 maya: bune + shuc & mali: shuc
s 28apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: tree
s 29apr19 0 1 0  0 mali: digl
s 30apr19 0 0 1  1 | maya: melt & mali: melt
s 01may19 4 1 2  0 maya: digl x 3 + sunk x 1 & mali: digl | maya: lugi + grou
s 02may19 1 0 0  0 maya: digl
s 03may19 0 0 0  2 | mali: melt x 2
s 07may19 0 1 0  0 mali: pich
s 10may19 0 1 0  0 mali: psyd
s 19may19 0 0 5  2 | maya: torc x 5 & mali: torc x 2
s 21may19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 22may19 1 0 0  0 maya: elek
s 25may19 0 0 2  1 | maya: lapr x 2 & maki: lapr - lapras event
s 07jun19 0 1 0  0 mali: anor
s 08jun19 0 0 6  2 | maya: slak x 6 & mali: slak x 2
s 11jun19 1 1 0  0 maya: anor & mali: onix
s 12jun19 0 0 1  0 | mali: cres
s 14jun19 7 5 0  0 maya: wail + swab + lota + mach + bron + sand + gast & mali: drif + dusk + larv + bude + swin | go fest
s 18jun19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk


Lucky trades

This reports the distribution (histogram) of lucky trades since I started keeping track of them. The first line below gives the start trade, the end trade, the total trades made, the number of luckies encountered, and the average number of trades made to obtain a lucky trade.

The second group of lines gives the histogram values. The first column is the range when the lucky trade occurred and the second is count. For instance, the number of luckies encountered between 0-10 trades is given in first line, between 11-20 trades in the second line, and so on. The one thing I got out of this is that if you don't encounter a lucky by the 20th trade or so, it might not happen for a while (as many as 100 trades, which is when I decided to start keeping track, but easily 30+ and sometimes more). Most of the luckies happen before the 20th trade (which is natural given the odds) but if it doesn't, best to keep trading throwaways until you encounter the lucky. This is especially relevant for the timing of legendary/special trades.

The third group twenty lines shows the frequency of when the trade becomes lucky. First column is count and second is the number of trades made when the lucky happened. In other words, a trade became lucky after [second column] number of trades [first column] times.

Start: 2310 | End: 3901 | Total: 1591 | Luckies: 84 | Average: 18.94

 0-10 29
11-20 24
21-30 10
31-40 13
41-50 3
51-60 2
61-   3

   8 1
   7 12
   5 3
   4 8
   4 35
   3 7
   3 21
   3 18
   3 16
   3 14
   2 9
   2 6
   2 4
   2 39
   2 34
   2 32
   2 31
   2 29
   2 20
   2 2
   2 19
   2 15


Pseudointellectual ramblings || Ram Samudrala || me@ram.org