Pokemon GO


Shinies

This is the output of my wild shiny eligible encounter log script since November 16, 2018, as well as a record of all shinies encountered since that date. The first three lines are the summaries for two accounts labelled "maya" and "mali". I've only kept careful track of the encounters for "maya" but it's a reasonable assumption that second account (used by my daughter) is nearly identical.

The second group of lines are the counts of shiny eligible encounters at different dates (first column) followed by the cumulative count of encounters since start date (second column), count since last date (third column), and the total number of encounters of the shiny eligible species (fourth column). This fourth column of course is not very useful and primarily serves as a sanity check.

The third group of lines is shinies actually encountered. The prefix "s" followed by the date of the encounter(s), followed by four columns of counts (wild shinies-maya, wild shinies-mali, other shinies-maya, other shinies-mali) and then the identities of the shinies. The wild shinies come first and then other shinies (events, community days, shiny meltan, etc.) come after the "|" symbol.

I also have all the raw counts for each shiny eligible species which was processed to generate the data below which I can make available upon request or will put it up at some point.

maya:  53 wild shinies from ~16388 encounters (rate: 309.2) +  87 event/community day shinies = 140 total since 16nov18
mali:  53 wild shinies from ~16388 encounters (rate: 309.2) +  66 event/community day shinies = 119 total since 16nov18
cumulative rate is one wild shiny for every 309.2 encounters

16nov18    0    0 24567
17nov18   63   63 24630
18nov18  208  145 24775
20nov18  284   76 24851
21nov18  379   95 24946
22nov18  535  156 25102
23nov18  572   37 25139
25nov18  730  158 25297
27nov18  784   54 25351
28nov18  829   45 25396
30nov18  877   48 25444
03dec18 1459  582 26026
06dec18 1533   74 26100
12dec18 1679  146 26246
15dec18 1740   61 26307
19dec18 1899  159 26466
26dec18 2169  270 26736
27dec18 2239   70 26806
03jan19 2474  235 27041
11jan19 2622  148 27189
16jan19 2738  116 27305
22jan19 3091  353 27658
27jan19 3283  192 27850
28jan19 3393  110 27960
30jan19 3470   77 28037
04feb19 3619  149 28186
07feb19 3702   83 28269
11feb19 3860  158 28427
17feb19 4092  232 28659
20feb19 4168   76 28735
23feb19 4482  314 29049
28feb19 4658  176 29225
05mar19 4877  219 29444
11mar19 5190  313 29757
20mar19 5572  382 30139
26mar19 5789  217 30356
05apr19 6316  527 30883
11apr19 6497  181 31064
13apr19 6594   97 31161
21apr19 7023  429 31590
22apr19 7247  224 31814
28apr19 7423  176 31990
02may19 7643  220 32210
18may19 8379  736 32946
21may19 8516  137 33083
11jun19 9467  951 34034
15jun19 10348  881 34915
29jun19 10811  463 35378
05jul19 11462  651 36029
13jul19 11743  281 36310
26jul19 12166  423 36733
28jul19 12568  402 37135
12aug19 13433  865 38000
29aug19 14286  853 38853
10sep19 14808  522 39375
19sep19 15392  584 39959
03oct19 16388  996 40955

s 16nov18 1 0 0  0  maya: bulb
s 21nov18 2 1 0  0  maya: eeve x 2 | mali: natu
s 23nov18 0 1 0  0  mali: cubo
s 03dec18 0 1 15 8  mali: pine | maya: bulb x 2 + char x 2 + squi + pika x 4 + mare x 5 + drat & mali: char x 2 + squi + pika + larv x 3 + beld - community weekend event
s 15dec18 1 0 0  0  maya: cate
s 16dec18 0 2 0  0  mali: pine + magb
s 27dec18 1 1 0  0  maya: snor & mali: snor
s 10jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: magb
s 12jan19 0 1 8  3  mali: murk | maya: toto x 8 & mali: toto x 3 - community day event
s 19jan19 0 0 3  1  maya: minu | maya: feeb x 3 & mali: feeb - feebas event
s 21jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: minu
s 27jan19 2 1 0  0  maya: psyd + zigz & mali: psyd
s 07feb19 0 1 0  0  mali: murk
s 08feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 11feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 16feb19 0 0 7  7  | maya: swin x 7 & mali swin x 7 - community day
s 20feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: pine
s 23feb19 0 1 3  7  mali: pine | maya: clam x 3 & mali: clam x 6 + latias
s 28feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: eevee
s 10mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: cate
s 20mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: solr
s 23mar19 0 0 3  3  | maya: tree x 3 & mali: tree x 3
s 26mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: aero
s 30mar19 0 0 5  7  | maya: lota x 4 + cast x 1 & mali: lota x 3 + cast x 4 - weather-focussed event
s 05apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: cate
s 11apr19 2 0 0  0 maya: snub + shup
s 13apr19 1 0 5  3 maya: murk | maya: bago x 5 & mali: bago x 3
s 14apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: shel
s 20apr19 0 1 0  0 mali: shuc
s 21apr19 2 1 0  0 maya: bune + shuc & mali: shuc
s 28apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: tree
s 29apr19 0 1 0  0 mali: digl
s 30apr19 0 0 1  1 | maya: melt & mali: melt
s 01may19 4 1 2  0 maya: digl x 3 + sunk x 1 & mali: digl | maya: lugi + grou
s 02may19 1 0 0  0 maya: digl
s 03may19 0 0 0  2 | mali: melt x 2
s 07may19 0 1 0  0 mali: pich
s 10may19 0 1 0  0 mali: psyd
s 19may19 0 0 5  2 | maya: torc x 5 & mali: torc x 2
s 21may19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 22may19 1 0 0  0 maya: elek
s 25may19 0 0 2  1 | maya: lapr x 2 & maki: lapr - lapras event
s 07jun19 0 1 0  0 mali: anor
s 08jun19 0 0 6  2 | maya: slak x 6 & mali: slak x 2
s 11jun19 1 1 0  0 maya: anor & mali: onix
s 12jun19 0 0 0  1 | mali: cres
s 14jun19 7 5 0  0 maya: wail + swab + lota + mach + bron + sand + gast & mali: drif + dusk + larv + bude + swin | go fest
s 18jun19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 25jun19 0 1 0  0 mali: magb
s 26jun19 0 0 1  0 | maya: kyog
s 29jun19 1 1 2  2 maya: nidf & mali: digl | maya: raik x 2 & mali raik x 2 - raikou raid day
s 03jul19 2 0 0  0 maya: ratt-a & magb
s 05jul19 1 1 0  0 maya: toto & mali: elek
s 11jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt-a
s 12jul19 1 0 0  0 maya: ratt
s 14jul19 0 0 2  1 | maya: ente x 2 & mali ente - entei raid day
s 18jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: toge
s 21jul19 0 0 4  4 | maya: mudk x 4 & mali mudk x 4
s 22jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 24jul19 1 0 0  0 maya: eeve
s 26jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: koff
s 28jul19 1 2 0  0 maya: pins & mali: ekan + wail
s 29jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: koff
s 02aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 03aug19 0 0 6  5 | maya: 6 x ralt & mali 5 x ralt - ralts community day
s 04aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: pidg
s 07aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 12aug19 1 1 0  0 maya: poli & mali: anor
s 14aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: ekan
s 15aug19 0 3 0  0 mali: elek + murk + smoo
s 17aug19 0 0 1  1 | maya: suic & mali: suic - suic raid day
s 18aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: iggl
s 19aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: bons
s 27aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: barb
s 29aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: barb
s 31aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 01sep19 0 0 1  0 | maya: rayq
s 02sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: sent
s 06sep19 0 2 0  0 mali: sent & grim-a
s 13sep19 0 2 0  0 mali: farf & houn
s 15sep19 0 0 4  1 | maya: turt x 4 & mali: turt
s 18sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: patr
s 19sep19 1 1 0  0 maya: mank & mali: grim-a
s 20sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: taur
s 21sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: yanm
s 22sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: nidf
s 23sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: bron
s 25sep19 0 0 1  2 | maya: gira & mali gira x 2
s 05oct19 2 0 0  0 maya: wyna & lill


Lucky trades

This reports the distribution (histogram) of lucky trades since I started keeping track of them. The first line below gives the start trade, the end trade, the total trades made, the number of luckies encountered, and the average number of trades made to obtain a lucky trade.

The second group of lines gives the histogram values. The first column is the range when the lucky trade occurred and the second is count. For instance, the number of luckies encountered between 0-10 trades is given in first line, between 11-20 trades in the second line, and so on. The one thing I got out of this is that if you don't encounter a lucky by the 20th trade or so, it might not happen for a while (as many as 100 trades, which is when I decided to start keeping track, but easily 30+ and sometimes more). Most of the luckies happen before the 20th trade (which is natural given the odds) but if it doesn't, best to keep trading throwaways until you encounter the lucky. This is especially relevant for the timing of legendary/special trades.

The third group twenty lines shows the frequency of when the trade becomes lucky. First column is count and second is the number of trades made when the lucky happened. In other words, a trade became lucky after [second column] number of trades [first column] times.

Start: 2310 | End: 4230 | Total: 1920 | Luckies: 104 | Average: 18.46

 0-10 36
11-20 30
21-30 15
31-40 15
41-50 3
51-60 2
61-   3

  11 1
   8 12
   5 35
   5 3
   4 8
   4 29
   4 19
   3 9
   3 7
   3 4
   3 21
   3 2
   3 18
   3 16
   3 15
   3 14
   2 6
   2 39
   2 34
   2 32
   2 31
   2 27


Pseudointellectual ramblings || Ram Samudrala || me@ram.org