Pokemon GO


Shinies

This is the output of my wild shiny eligible encounter log script since November 16, 2018, as well as a record of all shinies encountered since that date. The first three lines are the summaries for two accounts labelled "maya" and "mali". I've only kept careful track of the encounters for "maya" but it's a reasonable assumption that second account (used by my daughter) is nearly identical.

The second group of lines are the counts of shiny eligible encounters at different dates (first column) followed by the cumulative count of encounters since start date (second column), count since last date (third column), and the total number of encounters of the shiny eligible species (fourth column). This fourth column of course is not very useful and primarily serves as a sanity check.

The third group of lines is shinies actually encountered. The prefix "s" followed by the date of the encounter(s), followed by four columns of counts (wild shinies-maya, wild shinies-mali, other shinies-maya, other shinies-mali) and then the identities of the shinies. The wild shinies come first and then other shinies (events, community days, shiny meltan, etc.) come after the "|" symbol.

I also have all the raw counts for each shiny eligible species which was processed to generate the data below which I can make available upon request or will put it up at some point.

maya: 126 wild shinies from ~46443 encounters (rate: 368.6) + 200 event/community day shinies = 326 total since 16nov18
mali: 117 wild shinies from ~46443 encounters (rate: 396.9) + 139 event/community day shinies = 256 total since 16nov18
cumulative rate is one wild shiny for every 382.2 encounters

16nov18    0    0 31150
17nov18   63   63 31213
18nov18  208  145 31358
20nov18  284   76 31434
21nov18  379   95 31529
22nov18  535  156 31685
23nov18  572   37 31722
25nov18  730  158 31880
27nov18  784   54 31934
28nov18  829   45 31979
30nov18  877   48 32027
03dec18 1459  582 32609
06dec18 1533   74 32683
12dec18 1679  146 32829
15dec18 1740   61 32890
19dec18 1899  159 33049
26dec18 2169  270 33319
27dec18 2239   70 33389
03jan19 2474  235 33624
11jan19 2622  148 33772
16jan19 2738  116 33888
22jan19 3091  353 34241
27jan19 3283  192 34433
28jan19 3393  110 34543
30jan19 3470   77 34620
04feb19 3619  149 34769
07feb19 3702   83 34852
11feb19 3860  158 35010
17feb19 4092  232 35242
20feb19 4168   76 35318
23feb19 4482  314 35632
28feb19 4658  176 35808
05mar19 4877  219 36027
11mar19 5190  313 36340
20mar19 5572  382 36722
26mar19 5789  217 36939
05apr19 6316  527 37466
11apr19 6497  181 37647
13apr19 6594   97 37744
21apr19 7023  429 38173
22apr19 7247  224 38397
28apr19 7423  176 38573
02may19 7643  220 38793
18may19 8379  736 39529
21may19 8516  137 39666
11jun19 9467  951 40617
15jun19 10348  881 41498
29jun19 10811  463 41961
05jul19 11462  651 42612
13jul19 11743  281 42893
26jul19 12166  423 43316
28jul19 12568  402 43718
12aug19 13433  865 44583
29aug19 14286  853 45436
10sep19 14808  522 45958
19sep19 15396  588 46546
03oct19 16396 1000 47546
01nov19 18110 1714 49260
03dec19 19354 1244 50504
02jan20 20745 1391 51895
01feb20 22100 1355 53250
01mar20 23434 1334 54584
01apr20 26572 3138 57722
01may20 30947 4375 62097
01jun20 37840 6893 68990
01jul20 39995 2155 71145
01aug20 43324 3329 74474
01sep20 46443 3119 77593

s 16nov18 1 0 0  0  maya: bulb
s 21nov18 2 1 0  0  maya: eeve x 2 | mali: natu
s 23nov18 0 1 0  0  mali: cubo
s 03dec18 0 1 15 8  mali: pine | maya: bulb x 2 + char x 2 + squi + pika x 4 + mare x 5 + drat & mali: char x 2 + squi + pika + larv x 3 + beld - community weekend event
s 15dec18 1 0 0  0  maya: cate
s 16dec18 0 2 0  0  mali: pine + magb
s 27dec18 1 1 0  0  maya: snor & mali: snor
s 10jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: magb
s 12jan19 0 1 8  3  mali: murk | maya: toto x 8 & mali: toto x 3 - community day event
s 19jan19 0 0 3  1  maya: minu | maya: feeb x 3 & mali: feeb - feebas event
s 21jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: minu
s 27jan19 2 1 0  0  maya: psyd + zigz & mali: psyd
s 07feb19 0 1 0  0  mali: murk
s 08feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 11feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 16feb19 0 0 7  7  | maya: swin x 7 & mali swin x 7 - community day
s 20feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: pine
s 23feb19 0 1 3  7  mali: pine | maya: clam x 3 & mali: clam x 6 + latias
s 28feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: eevee
s 10mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: cate
s 20mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: solr
s 23mar19 0 0 3  3  | maya: tree x 3 & mali: tree x 3
s 26mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: aero
s 30mar19 0 0 5  7  | maya: lota x 4 + cast x 1 & mali: lota x 3 + cast x 4 - weather-focussed event
s 05apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: cate
s 11apr19 2 0 0  0 maya: snub + shup
s 13apr19 1 0 5  3 maya: murk | maya: bago x 5 & mali: bago x 3
s 14apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: shel
s 20apr19 0 1 0  0 mali: shuc
s 21apr19 2 1 0  0 maya: bune + shuc & mali: shuc
s 28apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: tree
s 29apr19 0 1 0  0 mali: digl
s 30apr19 0 0 1  1 | maya: melt & mali: melt
s 01may19 4 1 2  0 maya: digl x 3 + sunk x 1 & mali: digl | maya: lugi + grou
s 02may19 1 0 0  0 maya: digl
s 03may19 0 0 0  2 | mali: melt x 2
s 07may19 0 1 0  0 mali: pich
s 10may19 0 1 0  0 mali: psyd
s 19may19 0 0 5  2 | maya: torc x 5 & mali: torc x 2
s 21may19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 22may19 1 0 0  0 maya: elek
s 25may19 0 0 2  1 | maya: lapr x 2 & maki: lapr - lapras event
s 07jun19 0 1 0  0 mali: anor
s 08jun19 0 0 6  2 | maya: slak x 6 & mali: slak x 2
s 11jun19 1 1 0  0 maya: anor & mali: onix
s 12jun19 0 0 0  1 | mali: cres
s 14jun19 7 5 0  0 maya: wail + swab + lota + mach + bron + sand + gast & mali: drif + dusk + larv + bude + swin | go fest
s 18jun19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 25jun19 0 1 0  0 mali: magb
s 26jun19 0 0 1  0 | maya: kyog
s 29jun19 1 1 2  2 maya: nidf & mali: digl | maya: raik x 2 & mali raik x 2 - raikou raid day
s 03jul19 2 0 0  0 maya: ratt-a & magb
s 05jul19 1 1 0  0 maya: toto & mali: elek
s 11jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt-a
s 12jul19 1 0 0  0 maya: ratt
s 14jul19 0 0 2  1 | maya: ente x 2 & mali ente - entei raid day
s 18jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: toge
s 21jul19 0 0 4  4 | maya: mudk x 4 & mali mudk x 4
s 22jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 24jul19 1 0 0  0 maya: eeve
s 26jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: koff
s 28jul19 1 2 0  0 maya: pins & mali: ekan + wail
s 29jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: koff
s 02aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 03aug19 0 0 6  5 | maya: 6 x ralt & mali 5 x ralt - ralts community day
s 04aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: pidg
s 07aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 12aug19 1 1 0  0 maya: poli & mali: anor
s 14aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: ekan
s 15aug19 0 3 0  0 mali: elek + murk + smoo
s 17aug19 0 0 1  1 | maya: suic & mali: suic - suic raid day
s 18aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: iggl
s 19aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: bons
s 27aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: barb
s 29aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: barb
s 31aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 01sep19 0 0 1  0 | maya: rayq
s 02sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: sent
s 06sep19 0 2 0  0 mali: sent & grim-a
s 13sep19 0 2 0  0 mali: farf & houn
s 15sep19 0 0 4  1 | maya: turt x 4 & mali: turt - turtwig community day
s 18sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: patr
s 19sep19 1 1 0  0 maya: mank & mali: grim-a
s 20sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: taur
s 21sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: yanm
s 22sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: nidf
s 23sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: bron
s 25sep19 0 0 1  2 | maya: gira & mali gira x 2
s 05oct19 2 0 0  0 maya: wyna & lill
s 08oct19 0 0 1  0 | mali: mewt
s 12oct19 0 0 4  2 | maya: trap x 4 & mali: trap x 2 - trapinch community tday
s 17oct19 0 1 0  0 mali: turt
s 18oct19 1 1 0  0 maya: vulp & mali: plus
s 23oct19 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt
s 26oct19 1 0 0  0 maya: natu
s 27oct19 1 1 0  0 maya: clef & mali: grow
s 28oct19 0 1 0  0 mali: pika-e
s 30oct19 1 0 0  0 maya: snea
s 02nov19 0 0 2  0 | maya: rste + rice
s 04nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: skar
s 08nov19 1 0 0  0 maya: iggl
s 13nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: maku
s 14nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: ekan
s 16nov19 0 1 8  4 mali: vulp | maya: chim x 8 mali chim x 4 - chimchar community day
s 21nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: magb
s 26nov19 1 0 0  0 maya: nidf
s 30nov19 2 0 0  0 maya: grim-a skar
s 02dec19 0 1 0  0 mali: patr
s 05dec19 1 0 0  0 maya: yanm
s 07dec19 2 0 0  0 maya: hors + scyt
s 09dec19 1 2 0  0 maya: burm-p-m & mali: onix + snor
s 10dec19 2 0 0  0 maya: glig + snea
s 12dec19 1 0 0  0 maya: scyt
s 22dec19 0 1 0  0 mali: elek
s 01jan20 0 1 0  0 mali: snea
s 10jan20 1 0 0  0 maya: pins
s 15jan20 2 0 0  0 maya: snub & oddi
s 19jan20 0 1 0  0 mali: bude | maya: pipl x 3 & mali pipl x 4
s 22jan20 0 0 0  1 | mali: heat
s 26jan20 0 0 2  0 | maya: latios and latias
s 29jan20 0 0 1  0 | maya: heat
s 01feb20 1 0 0  0 maya: magi
s 02feb20 0 1 4  2 mali: nidm | maya: minc x 4 & mali: minc x 2
s 10feb20 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt-a
s 11feb20 1 0 0  0 maya: seel
s 12feb20 1 0 0  0 maya: drow
s 15feb20 1 0 1  2 maya: yanm | maya: lick & mali: lick x 2
s 22feb20 1 0 4  3 maya: oddi | maya rhyh x 4 & mali rhyh x 3
s 29feb20 0 1 0  0 mali: eevee-partyhat
s 07mar20 1 0 0  1 maya: zigz | mali: dark
s 09mar20 1 0 0  0 maya: aero
s 14mar20 1 0 0  0 maya: medi
s 15mar20 0 1 0  0 mali: maku
s 19mar20 0 1 0  0 mali: aero
s 20mar20 0 2 0  0 mali: snea + ninc
s 21mar20 1 0 0  0 maya: grow
s 23mar20 2 0 0  0 maya: magn + snor
s 24mar20 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt
s 30mar20 1 1 0  0 mali: drow & maya natu
s 01apr20 2 0 0  0 maya: pooc + tail
s 04apr20 0 2 0  0 mali: sent + shel
s 05apr20 3 0 0  0 maya: nido-f + croa + aipo
s 13apr20 1 0 0  0 maya: exeg
s 15apr20 1 1 0  0 maya: pika-e & mali: pika-e
s 19apr20 0 0 13 5 | maya: anor + carv x 2 + chin + hors + krab + lile x 2 + mudk + pika-e + poli x 3 + tent & mali: chin x 3 + hors + tent - safari zone liverpool
s 22apr20 1 0 0  0 maya: illu
s 23apr20 0 1 0  0 mali: illu
s 24apr20 1 0 0  0 maya: volb
s 25apr20 0 1 7  4 mali: lill | maya: abra x 7 & mali: abra x 4
s 27apr20 0 1 0  0 mali: feeb
s 30apr20 0 1 0  0 mali: feeb
s 01may20 0 3 0  0 mali: chan + seel + poli
s 02may20 2 1 0  0 maya: char + nido-m & mali: tent
s 03may20 1 0 0  0 maya: pika-e
s 05may20 1 1 0  0 maya: hors & mali: hors
s 06may20 1 0 0  0 maya: exeg
s 09may20 0 0 14 2 | maya: bron + glig + krab + medi + mrmi + sand x 3 + seel + volt x 2 + yanm + zang x 2 & mali: volt + poli - safari zone philadelphia
s 14may20 1 1 0  0 mali: mach & maya: misd
s 16may20 1 1 0  0 mali: carv & maya: plus
s 17may20 2 1 0  0 maya: abso + pooc & mali: medi
s 20may20 2 0 0  0 maya: barb + wurm
s 22may20 2 0 0  0 maya: pika-e x 2
s 23may20 1 2 0  0 maya: snov & mali: croa + glam
s 24may20 0 1 4  5 mali: glam | maya: seed x 4 & mali: seed x 5 - seedot community day
s 25may20 1 0 0  0 maya: snov
s 27may20 0 1 0  0 mali: drif
s 29may20 1 0 0  0 maya: drif
s 30may20 1 0 0  0 maya: ratt
s 31may20 1 0 0  0 maya: veno
s 04jun20 0 1 0  0 mali: aero
s 20jun20 0 0 8  5 | maya: weed x 8 & mali weed x 5 - weedle community day
s 21jun20 0 1 0  0 mali: magm
s 22jun20 1 0 0  0 maya: clefairy
s 23jun20 1 0 0  0 maya: snea
s 27jun20 2 2 0  0 maya: ninc x 2 & mali: ninc x 2
s 28jun20 1 0 0  0 maya: wurm
s 29jun20 0 1 0  0 mali: shuc
s 30jun20 0 1 0  0 mali: grim-a
s 04jul20 0 1 0  0 mali: pika-e
s 05jul20 1 0 0  0 maya: hors
s 08jul20 1 0 0  0 maya: zuba
s 11jul20 1 0 0  0 maya: koff
s 17jul20 0 1 0  0 mali: wurm
s 19jul20 0 0 5  7 | maya: gast x 5 & mali gast x 5 - gastly community day
s 23jul20 0 1 0  0 mali: lill
s 25jul20 0 0 5  3 | maya: unoG + unoO + exeg-a + exeg + croa & mali: bude + qwil + mari
s 26jul20 0 0 14 7 | maya: bulb-pikahat x 2 + dura + magi + maro + heat x 2 + qwil x 2 + sabl + swab + tang x 2 + woob  & mali: bulb-pikahat + carv + gibl + maro + seve + tang + zang 
s 02aug20 0 0 0  1 | maya: rayq
s 08aug20 1 0 14 16 maya: misd | maya: magi x 14 & mali: deox-n & magi x 15
s 10aug20 1 0 0  0 maya: star
s 11aug20 0 1 0  0 mali: sabl
s 12aug20 0 1 0  0 mali: solr | maya: deox
s 14aug20 0 2 0  0 mali: star & balt
s 15aug20 0 0 0  2 | mali: gene x 2
s 16aug20 0 0 0  1 | mali: rose - go fest makeup
s 17aug20 0 0 2  0 | maya: gene x 2
s 21aug20 0 1 0  0 mali: misd
s 23aug20 1 0 0  0 maya: turt
s 31aug20 1 0 0  0 maya: turt
s 01sep20 0 1 0  0 mali: lota
s 02sep20 1 1 0  0 maya: magn & mali: tedd
s 09sep20 0 1 0  0 mali: zuba
s 13sep20 0 1 0  0 mali: dusk
s 14sep20 1 0 0  0 maya: scyt
s 16sep20 0 1 0  0 mali: veno
s 20sep20 0 1 0  0 mali: pido | maya: pory x 9 & mali: pory x 2
s 22sep20 1 0 0  0 maya: duns
s 23sep20 1 0 0  0 maya: duns


Lucky trades

This reports the distribution (histogram) of lucky trades since I started keeping track of them. The first line below gives the start trade, the end trade, the total trades made, the number of luckies encountered, and the average number of trades made to obtain a lucky trade.

The second group of lines gives the histogram values. The first column is the range when the lucky trade occurred and the second is count. For instance, the number of luckies encountered between 0-10 trades is given in first line, between 11-20 trades in the second line, and so on. The one thing I got out of this is that if you don't encounter a lucky by the 20th trade or so, it might not happen for a while (as many as 100 trades, which is when I decided to start keeping track, but easily 30+ and sometimes more). Most of the luckies happen before the 20th trade (which is natural given the odds) but if it doesn't, best to keep trading throwaways until you encounter the lucky. This is especially relevant for the timing of legendary/special trades.

The third group twenty lines shows the frequency of when the trade becomes lucky. First column is count and second is the number of trades made when the lucky happened. In other words, a trade became lucky after [second column] number of trades [first column] times.

Start: 2310 | End: 5517 | Total: 3207 | Luckies: 162 | Average: 19.80

 0-10 53
11-20 46
21-30 25
31-40 23
41-50 6
51-60 3
61-   6

  14 1
   8 3
   8 12
   7 19
   6 4
   6 16
   5 8
   5 7
   5 35
   5 29
   5 18
   5 11
   4 9
   4 20
   4 2
   4 15
   3 6
   3 5
   3 44
   3 38
   3 37
   3 32


Pseudointellectual ramblings || Ram Samudrala || me@ram.org