Pokemon GO


Shinies

This is the output of my wild shiny eligible encounter log script since November 16, 2018, as well as a record of all shinies encountered since that date. The first three lines are the summaries for two accounts labelled "maya" and "mali". I've only kept careful track of the encounters for "maya" but it's a reasonable assumption that second account (used by my daughter) is nearly identical.

The second group of lines are the counts of shiny eligible encounters at different dates (first column) followed by the cumulative count of encounters since start date (second column), count since last date (third column), and the total number of encounters of the shiny eligible species (fourth column). This fourth column of course is not very useful and primarily serves as a sanity check.

The third group of lines is shinies actually encountered. The prefix "s" followed by the date of the encounter(s), followed by four columns of counts (wild shinies-maya, wild shinies-mali, other shinies-maya, other shinies-mali) and then the identities of the shinies. The wild shinies come first and then other shinies (events, community days, shiny meltan, etc.) come after the "|" symbol.

I also have all the raw counts for each shiny eligible species which was processed to generate the data below which I can make available upon request or will put it up at some point.

maya: 118 wild shinies from ~39907 encounters (rate: 338.2) + 160 event/community day shinies = 278 total since 16nov18
mali: 104 wild shinies from ~39907 encounters (rate: 383.7) + 102 event/community day shinies = 206 total since 16nov18
cumulative rate is one wild shiny for every 359.5 encounters

16nov18    0    0 29776
17nov18   63   63 29839
18nov18  208  145 29984
20nov18  284   76 30060
21nov18  379   95 30155
22nov18  535  156 30311
23nov18  572   37 30348
25nov18  730  158 30506
27nov18  784   54 30560
28nov18  829   45 30605
30nov18  877   48 30653
03dec18 1459  582 31235
06dec18 1533   74 31309
12dec18 1679  146 31455
15dec18 1740   61 31516
19dec18 1899  159 31675
26dec18 2169  270 31945
27dec18 2239   70 32015
03jan19 2474  235 32250
11jan19 2622  148 32398
16jan19 2738  116 32514
22jan19 3091  353 32867
27jan19 3283  192 33059
28jan19 3393  110 33169
30jan19 3470   77 33246
04feb19 3619  149 33395
07feb19 3702   83 33478
11feb19 3860  158 33636
17feb19 4092  232 33868
20feb19 4168   76 33944
23feb19 4482  314 34258
28feb19 4658  176 34434
05mar19 4877  219 34653
11mar19 5190  313 34966
20mar19 5572  382 35348
26mar19 5789  217 35565
05apr19 6316  527 36092
11apr19 6497  181 36273
13apr19 6594   97 36370
21apr19 7023  429 36799
22apr19 7247  224 37023
28apr19 7423  176 37199
02may19 7643  220 37419
18may19 8379  736 38155
21may19 8516  137 38292
11jun19 9467  951 39243
15jun19 10348  881 40124
29jun19 10811  463 40587
05jul19 11462  651 41238
13jul19 11743  281 41519
26jul19 12166  423 41942
28jul19 12568  402 42344
12aug19 13433  865 43209
29aug19 14286  853 44062
10sep19 14808  522 44584
19sep19 15396  588 45172
03oct19 16396 1000 46172
01nov19 18110 1714 47886
03dec19 19346 1236 49122
02jan20 20717 1371 50493
01feb20 22062 1345 51838
01mar20 23386 1324 53162
01apr20 26514 3128 56290
01may20 30879 4365 60655
01jun20 37762 6883 67538
01jul20 39907 2145 69683

s 16nov18 1 0 0  0  maya: bulb
s 21nov18 2 1 0  0  maya: eeve x 2 | mali: natu
s 23nov18 0 1 0  0  mali: cubo
s 03dec18 0 1 15 8  mali: pine | maya: bulb x 2 + char x 2 + squi + pika x 4 + mare x 5 + drat & mali: char x 2 + squi + pika + larv x 3 + beld - community weekend event
s 15dec18 1 0 0  0  maya: cate
s 16dec18 0 2 0  0  mali: pine + magb
s 27dec18 1 1 0  0  maya: snor & mali: snor
s 10jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: magb
s 12jan19 0 1 8  3  mali: murk | maya: toto x 8 & mali: toto x 3 - community day event
s 19jan19 0 0 3  1  maya: minu | maya: feeb x 3 & mali: feeb - feebas event
s 21jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: minu
s 27jan19 2 1 0  0  maya: psyd + zigz & mali: psyd
s 07feb19 0 1 0  0  mali: murk
s 08feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 11feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 16feb19 0 0 7  7  | maya: swin x 7 & mali swin x 7 - community day
s 20feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: pine
s 23feb19 0 1 3  7  mali: pine | maya: clam x 3 & mali: clam x 6 + latias
s 28feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: eevee
s 10mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: cate
s 20mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: solr
s 23mar19 0 0 3  3  | maya: tree x 3 & mali: tree x 3
s 26mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: aero
s 30mar19 0 0 5  7  | maya: lota x 4 + cast x 1 & mali: lota x 3 + cast x 4 - weather-focussed event
s 05apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: cate
s 11apr19 2 0 0  0 maya: snub + shup
s 13apr19 1 0 5  3 maya: murk | maya: bago x 5 & mali: bago x 3
s 14apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: shel
s 20apr19 0 1 0  0 mali: shuc
s 21apr19 2 1 0  0 maya: bune + shuc & mali: shuc
s 28apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: tree
s 29apr19 0 1 0  0 mali: digl
s 30apr19 0 0 1  1 | maya: melt & mali: melt
s 01may19 4 1 2  0 maya: digl x 3 + sunk x 1 & mali: digl | maya: lugi + grou
s 02may19 1 0 0  0 maya: digl
s 03may19 0 0 0  2 | mali: melt x 2
s 07may19 0 1 0  0 mali: pich
s 10may19 0 1 0  0 mali: psyd
s 19may19 0 0 5  2 | maya: torc x 5 & mali: torc x 2
s 21may19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 22may19 1 0 0  0 maya: elek
s 25may19 0 0 2  1 | maya: lapr x 2 & maki: lapr - lapras event
s 07jun19 0 1 0  0 mali: anor
s 08jun19 0 0 6  2 | maya: slak x 6 & mali: slak x 2
s 11jun19 1 1 0  0 maya: anor & mali: onix
s 12jun19 0 0 0  1 | mali: cres
s 14jun19 7 5 0  0 maya: wail + swab + lota + mach + bron + sand + gast & mali: drif + dusk + larv + bude + swin | go fest
s 18jun19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 25jun19 0 1 0  0 mali: magb
s 26jun19 0 0 1  0 | maya: kyog
s 29jun19 1 1 2  2 maya: nidf & mali: digl | maya: raik x 2 & mali raik x 2 - raikou raid day
s 03jul19 2 0 0  0 maya: ratt-a & magb
s 05jul19 1 1 0  0 maya: toto & mali: elek
s 11jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt-a
s 12jul19 1 0 0  0 maya: ratt
s 14jul19 0 0 2  1 | maya: ente x 2 & mali ente - entei raid day
s 18jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: toge
s 21jul19 0 0 4  4 | maya: mudk x 4 & mali mudk x 4
s 22jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 24jul19 1 0 0  0 maya: eeve
s 26jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: koff
s 28jul19 1 2 0  0 maya: pins & mali: ekan + wail
s 29jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: koff
s 02aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 03aug19 0 0 6  5 | maya: 6 x ralt & mali 5 x ralt - ralts community day
s 04aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: pidg
s 07aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 12aug19 1 1 0  0 maya: poli & mali: anor
s 14aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: ekan
s 15aug19 0 3 0  0 mali: elek + murk + smoo
s 17aug19 0 0 1  1 | maya: suic & mali: suic - suic raid day
s 18aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: iggl
s 19aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: bons
s 27aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: barb
s 29aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: barb
s 31aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 01sep19 0 0 1  0 | maya: rayq
s 02sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: sent
s 06sep19 0 2 0  0 mali: sent & grim-a
s 13sep19 0 2 0  0 mali: farf & houn
s 15sep19 0 0 4  1 | maya: turt x 4 & mali: turt - turtwig community day
s 18sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: patr
s 19sep19 1 1 0  0 maya: mank & mali: grim-a
s 20sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: taur
s 21sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: yanm
s 22sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: nidf
s 23sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: bron
s 25sep19 0 0 1  2 | maya: gira & mali gira x 2
s 05oct19 2 0 0  0 maya: wyna & lill
s 08oct19 0 0 1  0 | mali: mewt
s 12oct19 0 0 4  2 | maya: trap x 4 & mali: trap x 2 - trapinch community tday
s 17oct19 0 1 0  0 mali: turt
s 18oct19 1 1 0  0 maya: vulp & mali: plus
s 23oct19 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt
s 26oct19 1 0 0  0 maya: natu
s 27oct19 1 1 0  0 maya: clef & mali: grow
s 28oct19 0 1 0  0 mali: pika-e
s 30oct19 1 0 0  0 maya: snea
s 02nov19 0 0 2  0 | maya: rste + rice
s 04nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: skar
s 08nov19 1 0 0  0 maya: iggl
s 13nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: maku
s 14nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: ekan
s 16nov19 0 1 8  4 mali: vulp | maya: chim x 8 mali chim x 4 - chimchar community day
s 21nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: magb
s 26nov19 1 0 0  0 maya: nidf
s 30nov19 2 0 0  0 maya: grim-a skar
s 02dec19 0 1 0  0 mali: patr
s 05dec19 1 0 0  0 maya: yanm
s 07dec19 2 0 0  0 maya: hors + scyt
s 09dec19 1 2 0  0 maya: burm-p-m & mali: onix + snor
s 10dec19 2 0 0  0 maya: glig + snea
s 12dec19 1 0 0  0 maya: scyt
s 22dec19 0 1 0  0 mali: elek
s 01jan20 0 1 0  0 mali: snea
s 10jan20 1 0 0  0 maya: pins
s 15jan20 2 0 0  0 maya: snub & oddi
s 19jan20 0 1 0  0 mali: bude | maya: pipl x 3 & mali pipl x 4
s 22jan20 0 0 0  1 | mali: heat
s 26jan20 0 0 2  0 | maya: latios and latias
s 29jan20 0 0 1  0 | maya: heat
s 01feb20 1 0 0  0 maya: magi
s 02feb20 0 1 4  2 mali: nidm | maya: minc x 4 & mali: minc x 2
s 10feb20 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt-a
s 11feb20 1 0 0  0 maya: seel
s 12feb20 1 0 0  0 maya: drow
s 15feb20 1 0 1  2 maya: yanm | maya: lick & mali: lick x 2
s 22feb20 1 0 4  3 maya: oddi | maya rhyh x 4 & mali rhyh x 3
s 29feb20 0 1 0  0 mali: eevee-partyhat
s 07mar20 1 0 0  1 maya: zigz | mali: dark
s 09mar20 1 0 0  0 maya: aero
s 14mar20 1 0 0  0 maya: medi
s 15mar20 0 1 0  0 mali: maku
s 19mar20 0 1 0  0 mali: aero
s 20mar20 0 2 0  0 mali: snea + ninc
s 21mar20 1 0 0  0 maya: grow
s 23mar20 2 0 0  0 maya: magn + snor
s 24mar20 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt
s 30mar20 1 1 0  0 mali: drow & maya natu
s 01apr20 2 0 0  0 maya: pooc + tail
s 04apr20 0 2 0  0 mali: sent + shel
s 05apr20 3 0 0  0 maya: nido-f + croa + aipo
s 13apr20 1 0 0  0 maya: exeg
s 15apr20 1 1 0  0 maya: pika-e & mali: pika-e
s 19apr20 0 0 13 5 | maya: anor + carv x 2 + chin + hors + krab + lile x 2 + mudk + pika-e + poli x 3 + tent & mali: chin x 3 + hors + tent - safari zone liverpool
s 22apr20 1 0 0  0 maya: illu
s 23apr20 0 1 0  0 mali: illu
s 24apr20 1 0 0  0 maya: volb
s 25apr20 0 1 7  4 mali: lill | maya: abra x 7 & mali: abra x 4
s 27apr20 0 1 0  0 mali: feeb
s 30apr20 0 1 0  0 mali: feeb
s 01may20 0 3 0  0 mali: chan + seel + poli
s 02may20 2 1 0  0 maya: char + nido-m & mali: tent
s 03may20 1 0 0  0 maya: pika-e
s 05may20 1 1 0  0 maya: hors & mali: hors
s 06may20 1 0 0  0 maya: exeg
s 09may20 0 0 14 2 | maya: bron + glig + krab + medi + mrmi + sand x 3 + seel + volt x 2 + yanm + zang x 2 & mali: volt + poli - safari zone philadelphia
s 14may20 1 1 0  0 mali: mach & maya: misd
s 16may20 1 1 0  0 mali: carv & maya: plus
s 17may20 2 1 0  0 maya: abso + pooc & mali: medi
s 20may20 2 0 0  0 maya: barb + wurm
s 22may20 2 0 0  0 maya: pika-e x 2
s 23may20 1 2 0  0 maya: snov & mali: croa + glam
s 24may20 0 1 4  5 mali: glam | maya: seed x 4 & mali: seed x 5 - seedot community day
s 25may20 1 0 0  0 maya: snov
s 27may20 0 1 0  0 mali: drif
s 29may20 1 0 0  0 maya: drif
s 30may20 1 0 0  0 maya: ratt
s 31may20 1 0 0  0 maya: veno
s 04jun20 0 1 0  0 mali: aero
s 20jun20 0 0 8  5 | maya: weed x 8 & mali weed x 5 - weedle community day
s 21jun20 0 1 0  0 mali: magm
s 22jun20 1 0 0  0 maya: clefairy
s 23jun20 1 0 0  0 maya: snea
s 27jun20 2 2 0  0 maya: ninc x 2 & mali: ninc x 2
s 28jun20 1 0 0  0 maya: wurm
s 29jun20 0 1 0  0 mali: shuc
s 30jun20 0 1 0  0 mali: grim-a
s 04jul20 0 1 0  0 mali: pika-e
s 05jul20 1 0 0  0 maya: hors
s 08jul20 1 0 0  0 maya: zuba
s 11jun20 1 0 0  0 maya: koff


Lucky trades

This reports the distribution (histogram) of lucky trades since I started keeping track of them. The first line below gives the start trade, the end trade, the total trades made, the number of luckies encountered, and the average number of trades made to obtain a lucky trade.

The second group of lines gives the histogram values. The first column is the range when the lucky trade occurred and the second is count. For instance, the number of luckies encountered between 0-10 trades is given in first line, between 11-20 trades in the second line, and so on. The one thing I got out of this is that if you don't encounter a lucky by the 20th trade or so, it might not happen for a while (as many as 100 trades, which is when I decided to start keeping track, but easily 30+ and sometimes more). Most of the luckies happen before the 20th trade (which is natural given the odds) but if it doesn't, best to keep trading throwaways until you encounter the lucky. This is especially relevant for the timing of legendary/special trades.

The third group twenty lines shows the frequency of when the trade becomes lucky. First column is count and second is the number of trades made when the lucky happened. In other words, a trade became lucky after [second column] number of trades [first column] times.

Start: 2310 | End: 5199 | Total: 2889 | Luckies: 149 | Average: 19.39

 0-10 52
11-20 40
21-30 22
31-40 21
41-50 6
51-60 3
61-   5

  14 1
   8 3
   8 12
   7 19
   6 4
   5 8
   5 7
   5 35
   5 29
   4 9
   4 20
   4 2
   4 18
   4 15
   3 5
   3 44
   3 32
   3 28
   3 24
   3 21
   3 16
   3 14


Pseudointellectual ramblings || Ram Samudrala || me@ram.org