Pokemon GO


Shinies

This is the output of my wild shiny eligible encounter log script since November 16, 2018, as well as a record of all shinies encountered since that date. The first three lines are the summaries for two accounts labelled "maya" and "mali". I've only kept careful track of the encounters for "maya" but it's a reasonable assumption that second account (used by my daughter) is nearly identical.

The second group of lines are the counts of shiny eligible encounters at different dates (first column) followed by the cumulative count of encounters since start date (second column), count since last date (third column), and the total number of encounters of the shiny eligible species (fourth column). This fourth column of course is not very useful and primarily serves as a sanity check.

The third group of lines is shinies actually encountered. The prefix "s" followed by the date of the encounter(s), followed by four columns of counts (wild shinies-maya, wild shinies-mali, other shinies-maya, other shinies-mali) and then the identities of the shinies. The wild shinies come first and then other shinies (events, community days, shiny meltan, etc.) come after the "|" symbol.

I also have all the raw counts for each shiny eligible species which was processed to generate the data below which I can make available upon request or will put it up at some point.

maya:  65 wild shinies from ~19330 encounters (rate: 297.4) + 102 event/community day shinies = 167 total since 16nov18
mali:  64 wild shinies from ~19330 encounters (rate: 302.0) +  72 event/community day shinies = 136 total since 16nov18
cumulative rate is one wild shiny for every 299.7 encounters

16nov18    0    0 26190
17nov18   63   63 26253
18nov18  208  145 26398
20nov18  284   76 26474
21nov18  379   95 26569
22nov18  535  156 26725
23nov18  572   37 26762
25nov18  730  158 26920
27nov18  784   54 26974
28nov18  829   45 27019
30nov18  877   48 27067
03dec18 1459  582 27649
06dec18 1533   74 27723
12dec18 1679  146 27869
15dec18 1740   61 27930
19dec18 1899  159 28089
26dec18 2169  270 28359
27dec18 2239   70 28429
03jan19 2474  235 28664
11jan19 2622  148 28812
16jan19 2738  116 28928
22jan19 3091  353 29281
27jan19 3283  192 29473
28jan19 3393  110 29583
30jan19 3470   77 29660
04feb19 3619  149 29809
07feb19 3702   83 29892
11feb19 3860  158 30050
17feb19 4092  232 30282
20feb19 4168   76 30358
23feb19 4482  314 30672
28feb19 4658  176 30848
05mar19 4877  219 31067
11mar19 5190  313 31380
20mar19 5572  382 31762
26mar19 5789  217 31979
05apr19 6316  527 32506
11apr19 6497  181 32687
13apr19 6594   97 32784
21apr19 7023  429 33213
22apr19 7247  224 33437
28apr19 7423  176 33613
02may19 7643  220 33833
18may19 8379  736 34569
21may19 8516  137 34706
11jun19 9467  951 35657
15jun19 10348  881 36538
29jun19 10811  463 37001
05jul19 11462  651 37652
13jul19 11743  281 37933
26jul19 12166  423 38356
28jul19 12568  402 38758
12aug19 13433  865 39623
29aug19 14286  853 40476
10sep19 14808  522 40998
19sep19 15392  584 41582
03oct19 16388  996 42578
01nov19 18098 1710 44288
03dec19 19330 1232 45520

s 16nov18 1 0 0  0  maya: bulb
s 21nov18 2 1 0  0  maya: eeve x 2 | mali: natu
s 23nov18 0 1 0  0  mali: cubo
s 03dec18 0 1 15 8  mali: pine | maya: bulb x 2 + char x 2 + squi + pika x 4 + mare x 5 + drat & mali: char x 2 + squi + pika + larv x 3 + beld - community weekend event
s 15dec18 1 0 0  0  maya: cate
s 16dec18 0 2 0  0  mali: pine + magb
s 27dec18 1 1 0  0  maya: snor & mali: snor
s 10jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: magb
s 12jan19 0 1 8  3  mali: murk | maya: toto x 8 & mali: toto x 3 - community day event
s 19jan19 0 0 3  1  maya: minu | maya: feeb x 3 & mali: feeb - feebas event
s 21jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: minu
s 27jan19 2 1 0  0  maya: psyd + zigz & mali: psyd
s 07feb19 0 1 0  0  mali: murk
s 08feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 11feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 16feb19 0 0 7  7  | maya: swin x 7 & mali swin x 7 - community day
s 20feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: pine
s 23feb19 0 1 3  7  mali: pine | maya: clam x 3 & mali: clam x 6 + latias
s 28feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: eevee
s 10mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: cate
s 20mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: solr
s 23mar19 0 0 3  3  | maya: tree x 3 & mali: tree x 3
s 26mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: aero
s 30mar19 0 0 5  7  | maya: lota x 4 + cast x 1 & mali: lota x 3 + cast x 4 - weather-focussed event
s 05apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: cate
s 11apr19 2 0 0  0 maya: snub + shup
s 13apr19 1 0 5  3 maya: murk | maya: bago x 5 & mali: bago x 3
s 14apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: shel
s 20apr19 0 1 0  0 mali: shuc
s 21apr19 2 1 0  0 maya: bune + shuc & mali: shuc
s 28apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: tree
s 29apr19 0 1 0  0 mali: digl
s 30apr19 0 0 1  1 | maya: melt & mali: melt
s 01may19 4 1 2  0 maya: digl x 3 + sunk x 1 & mali: digl | maya: lugi + grou
s 02may19 1 0 0  0 maya: digl
s 03may19 0 0 0  2 | mali: melt x 2
s 07may19 0 1 0  0 mali: pich
s 10may19 0 1 0  0 mali: psyd
s 19may19 0 0 5  2 | maya: torc x 5 & mali: torc x 2
s 21may19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 22may19 1 0 0  0 maya: elek
s 25may19 0 0 2  1 | maya: lapr x 2 & maki: lapr - lapras event
s 07jun19 0 1 0  0 mali: anor
s 08jun19 0 0 6  2 | maya: slak x 6 & mali: slak x 2
s 11jun19 1 1 0  0 maya: anor & mali: onix
s 12jun19 0 0 0  1 | mali: cres
s 14jun19 7 5 0  0 maya: wail + swab + lota + mach + bron + sand + gast & mali: drif + dusk + larv + bude + swin | go fest
s 18jun19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 25jun19 0 1 0  0 mali: magb
s 26jun19 0 0 1  0 | maya: kyog
s 29jun19 1 1 2  2 maya: nidf & mali: digl | maya: raik x 2 & mali raik x 2 - raikou raid day
s 03jul19 2 0 0  0 maya: ratt-a & magb
s 05jul19 1 1 0  0 maya: toto & mali: elek
s 11jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt-a
s 12jul19 1 0 0  0 maya: ratt
s 14jul19 0 0 2  1 | maya: ente x 2 & mali ente - entei raid day
s 18jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: toge
s 21jul19 0 0 4  4 | maya: mudk x 4 & mali mudk x 4
s 22jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 24jul19 1 0 0  0 maya: eeve
s 26jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: koff
s 28jul19 1 2 0  0 maya: pins & mali: ekan + wail
s 29jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: koff
s 02aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 03aug19 0 0 6  5 | maya: 6 x ralt & mali 5 x ralt - ralts community day
s 04aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: pidg
s 07aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 12aug19 1 1 0  0 maya: poli & mali: anor
s 14aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: ekan
s 15aug19 0 3 0  0 mali: elek + murk + smoo
s 17aug19 0 0 1  1 | maya: suic & mali: suic - suic raid day
s 18aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: iggl
s 19aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: bons
s 27aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: barb
s 29aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: barb
s 31aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 01sep19 0 0 1  0 | maya: rayq
s 02sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: sent
s 06sep19 0 2 0  0 mali: sent & grim-a
s 13sep19 0 2 0  0 mali: farf & houn
s 15sep19 0 0 4  1 | maya: turt x 4 & mali: turt - turtwig community day
s 18sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: patr
s 19sep19 1 1 0  0 maya: mank & mali: grim-a
s 20sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: taur
s 21sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: yanm
s 22sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: nidf
s 23sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: bron
s 25sep19 0 0 1  2 | maya: gira & mali gira x 2
s 05oct19 2 0 0  0 maya: wyna & lill
s 08oct19 0 0 1  0 | mali: mewt
s 12oct19 0 0 4  2 | maya: trap x 4 & mali: trap x 2 - trapinch community tday
s 17oct19 0 1 0  0 mali: turt
s 18oct19 1 1 0  0 maya: vulp & mali: plus
s 23oct19 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt
s 26oct19 1 0 0  0 maya: natu
s 27oct19 1 1 0  0 maya: clef & mali: grow
s 28oct19 0 1 0  0 mali: pika-e
s 30oct19 1 0 0  0 maya: snea
s 02nov19 0 0 2  0 | maya: rste + rice
s 04nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: skar
s 08nov19 1 0 0  0 maya: iggl
s 13nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: maku
s 14nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: ekan
s 16nov19 0 1 8  4 mali: vulp | maya: chim x 8 & mali chim x 4 - chimchar community day
s 21nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: magb
s 26nov19 1 0 0  0 maya: nidf
s 30nov19 2 0 0  0 maya: grim-a skar
s 02dec19 0 1 0  0 mali: patr
s 05dec19 1 0 0  0 maya: yanm
s 07dec19 2 0 0  0 maya: hors + sciz
s 09dec19 1 0 0  0 maya: burm-p-m


Lucky trades

This reports the distribution (histogram) of lucky trades since I started keeping track of them. The first line below gives the start trade, the end trade, the total trades made, the number of luckies encountered, and the average number of trades made to obtain a lucky trade.

The second group of lines gives the histogram values. The first column is the range when the lucky trade occurred and the second is count. For instance, the number of luckies encountered between 0-10 trades is given in first line, between 11-20 trades in the second line, and so on. The one thing I got out of this is that if you don't encounter a lucky by the 20th trade or so, it might not happen for a while (as many as 100 trades, which is when I decided to start keeping track, but easily 30+ and sometimes more). Most of the luckies happen before the 20th trade (which is natural given the odds) but if it doesn't, best to keep trading throwaways until you encounter the lucky. This is especially relevant for the timing of legendary/special trades.

The third group twenty lines shows the frequency of when the trade becomes lucky. First column is count and second is the number of trades made when the lucky happened. In other words, a trade became lucky after [second column] number of trades [first column] times.

Start: 2310 | End: 4391 | Total: 2081 | Luckies: 112 | Average: 18.58

 0-10 39
11-20 31
21-30 17
31-40 17
41-50 3
51-60 2
61-   3

  11 1
   8 12
   5 35
   5 3
   4 9
   4 8
   4 4
   4 29
   4 19
   3 7
   3 32
   3 21
   3 20
   3 2
   3 18
   3 16
   3 15
   3 14
   2 6
   2 5
   2 39
   2 38


Pseudointellectual ramblings || Ram Samudrala || me@ram.org