Pokemon GO


Shinies

This is the output of my wild shiny eligible encounter log script since November 16, 2018, as well as a record of all shinies encountered since that date. The first three lines are the summaries for two accounts labelled "maya" and "mali". I've only kept careful track of the encounters for "maya" but it's a reasonable assumption that second account (used by my daughter) is nearly identical.

The second group of lines are the counts of shiny eligible encounters at different dates (first column) followed by the cumulative count of encounters since start date (second column), count since last date (third column), and the total number of encounters of the shiny eligible species (fourth column). This fourth column of course is not very useful and primarily serves as a sanity check.

The third group of lines is shinies actually encountered. The prefix "s" followed by the date of the encounter(s), followed by four columns of counts (wild shinies-maya, wild shinies-mali, other shinies-maya, other shinies-mali) and then the identities of the shinies. The wild shinies come first and then other shinies (events, community days, shiny meltan, etc.) come after the "|" symbol.

I also have all the raw counts for each shiny eligible species which was processed to generate the data below which I can make available upon request or will put it up at some point.

maya: 155 wild shinies from ~55347 encounters (rate: 357.1) + 225 event/community day shinies = 380 total since 16nov18
mali: 135 wild shinies from ~55347 encounters (rate: 410.0) + 164 event/community day shinies = 299 total since 16nov18
cumulative rate is one wild shiny for every 381.7 encounters

16nov18    0    0 33191
17nov18   63   63 33254
18nov18  208  145 33399
20nov18  284   76 33475
21nov18  379   95 33570
22nov18  535  156 33726
23nov18  572   37 33763
25nov18  730  158 33921
27nov18  784   54 33975
28nov18  829   45 34020
30nov18  877   48 34068
03dec18 1459  582 34650
06dec18 1533   74 34724
12dec18 1679  146 34870
15dec18 1740   61 34931
19dec18 1899  159 35090
26dec18 2169  270 35360
27dec18 2239   70 35430
03jan19 2474  235 35665
11jan19 2622  148 35813
16jan19 2738  116 35929
22jan19 3091  353 36282
27jan19 3283  192 36474
28jan19 3393  110 36584
30jan19 3470   77 36661
04feb19 3619  149 36810
07feb19 3702   83 36893
11feb19 3860  158 37051
17feb19 4092  232 37283
20feb19 4168   76 37359
23feb19 4482  314 37673
28feb19 4658  176 37849
05mar19 4877  219 38068
11mar19 5190  313 38381
20mar19 5572  382 38763
26mar19 5789  217 38980
05apr19 6316  527 39507
11apr19 6497  181 39688
13apr19 6594   97 39785
21apr19 7023  429 40214
22apr19 7247  224 40438
28apr19 7423  176 40614
02may19 7643  220 40834
18may19 8379  736 41570
21may19 8516  137 41707
11jun19 9467  951 42658
15jun19 10348  881 43539
29jun19 10811  463 44002
05jul19 11462  651 44653
13jul19 11743  281 44934
26jul19 12166  423 45357
28jul19 12568  402 45759
12aug19 13433  865 46624
29aug19 14286  853 47477
10sep19 14808  522 47999
19sep19 15396  588 48587
03oct19 16396 1000 49587
01nov19 18110 1714 51301
03dec19 19354 1244 52545
02jan20 20745 1391 53936
01feb20 22100 1355 55291
01mar20 23434 1334 56625
01apr20 26572 3138 59763
01may20 30947 4375 64138
01jun20 37840 6893 71031
01jul20 39995 2155 73186
01aug20 43324 3329 76515
01sep20 46441 3117 79632
01oct20 47461 1020 80652
01nov20 49557 2096 82748
01dec20 51142 1585 84333
01jan21 55347 4205 88538

s 16nov18 1 0 0  0  maya: bulb
s 21nov18 2 1 0  0  maya: eeve x 2 | mali: natu
s 23nov18 0 1 0  0  mali: cubo
s 03dec18 0 1 15 8  mali: pine | maya: bulb x 2 + char x 2 + squi + pika x 4 + mare x 5 + drat & mali: char x 2 + squi + pika + larv x 3 + beld - community weekend event
s 15dec18 1 0 0  0  maya: cate
s 16dec18 0 2 0  0  mali: pine + magb
s 27dec18 1 1 0  0  maya: snor & mali: snor
s 10jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: magb
s 12jan19 0 1 8  3  mali: murk | maya: toto x 8 & mali: toto x 3 - community day event
s 19jan19 0 0 3  1  maya: minu | maya: feeb x 3 & mali: feeb - feebas event
s 21jan19 0 1 0  0  mali: minu
s 27jan19 2 1 0  0  maya: psyd + zigz & mali: psyd
s 07feb19 0 1 0  0  mali: murk
s 08feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 11feb19 0 0 0  1  | mali: melt - event
s 16feb19 0 0 7  7  | maya: swin x 7 & mali swin x 7 - community day
s 20feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: pine
s 23feb19 0 1 3  7  mali: pine | maya: clam x 3 & mali: clam x 6 + latias
s 28feb19 1 0 0  0  maya: eevee
s 10mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: cate
s 20mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: solr
s 23mar19 0 0 3  3  | maya: tree x 3 & mali: tree x 3
s 26mar19 0 1 0  0  mali: aero
s 30mar19 0 0 5  7  | maya: lota x 4 + cast x 1 & mali: lota x 3 + cast x 4 - weather-focussed event
s 05apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: cate
s 11apr19 2 0 0  0 maya: snub + shup
s 13apr19 1 0 5  3 maya: murk | maya: bago x 5 & mali: bago x 3
s 14apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: shel
s 20apr19 0 1 0  0 mali: shuc
s 21apr19 2 1 0  0 maya: bune + shuc & mali: shuc
s 28apr19 1 0 0  0 maya: tree
s 29apr19 0 1 0  0 mali: digl
s 30apr19 0 0 1  1 | maya: melt & mali: melt
s 01may19 4 1 2  0 maya: digl x 3 + sunk x 1 & mali: digl | maya: lugi + grou
s 02may19 1 0 0  0 maya: digl
s 03may19 0 0 0  2 | mali: melt x 2
s 07may19 0 1 0  0 mali: pich
s 10may19 0 1 0  0 mali: psyd
s 19may19 0 0 5  2 | maya: torc x 5 & mali: torc x 2
s 21may19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 22may19 1 0 0  0 maya: elek
s 25may19 0 0 2  1 | maya: lapr x 2 & maki: lapr - lapras event
s 07jun19 0 1 0  0 mali: anor
s 08jun19 0 0 6  2 | maya: slak x 6 & mali: slak x 2
s 11jun19 1 1 0  0 maya: anor & mali: onix
s 12jun19 0 0 0  1 | mali: cres
s 14jun19 7 5 0  0 maya: wail + swab + lota + mach + bron + sand + gast & mali: drif + dusk + larv + bude + swin | go fest
s 18jun19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 25jun19 0 1 0  0 mali: magb
s 26jun19 0 0 1  0 | maya: kyog
s 29jun19 1 1 2  2 maya: nidf & mali: digl | maya: raik x 2 & mali raik x 2 - raikou raid day
s 03jul19 2 0 0  0 maya: ratt-a & magb
s 05jul19 1 1 0  0 maya: toto & mali: elek
s 11jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt-a
s 12jul19 1 0 0  0 maya: ratt
s 14jul19 0 0 2  1 | maya: ente x 2 & mali ente - entei raid day
s 18jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: toge
s 21jul19 0 0 4  4 | maya: mudk x 4 & mali mudk x 4
s 22jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 24jul19 1 0 0  0 maya: eeve
s 26jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: koff
s 28jul19 1 2 0  0 maya: pins & mali: ekan + wail
s 29jul19 0 1 0  0 mali: koff
s 02aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: sunk
s 03aug19 0 0 6  5 | maya: 6 x ralt & mali 5 x ralt - ralts community day
s 04aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: pidg
s 07aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 12aug19 1 1 0  0 maya: poli & mali: anor
s 14aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: ekan
s 15aug19 0 3 0  0 mali: elek + murk + smoo
s 17aug19 0 0 1  1 | maya: suic & mali: suic - suic raid day
s 18aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: iggl
s 19aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: bons
s 27aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: barb
s 29aug19 1 0 0  0 maya: barb
s 31aug19 0 1 0  0 mali: meow-a
s 01sep19 0 0 1  0 | maya: rayq
s 02sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: sent
s 06sep19 0 2 0  0 mali: sent & grim-a
s 13sep19 0 2 0  0 mali: farf & houn
s 15sep19 0 0 4  1 | maya: turt x 4 & mali: turt - turtwig community day
s 18sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: patr
s 19sep19 1 1 0  0 maya: mank & mali: grim-a
s 20sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: taur
s 21sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: yanm
s 22sep19 0 1 0  0 mali: nidf
s 23sep19 1 0 0  0 maya: bron
s 25sep19 0 0 1  2 | maya: gira & mali gira x 2
s 05oct19 2 0 0  0 maya: wyna & lill
s 08oct19 0 0 1  0 | mali: mewt
s 12oct19 0 0 4  2 | maya: trap x 4 & mali: trap x 2 - trapinch community tday
s 17oct19 0 1 0  0 mali: turt
s 18oct19 1 1 0  0 maya: vulp & mali: plus
s 23oct19 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt
s 26oct19 1 0 0  0 maya: natu
s 27oct19 1 1 0  0 maya: clef & mali: grow
s 28oct19 0 1 0  0 mali: pika-e
s 30oct19 1 0 0  0 maya: snea
s 02nov19 0 0 2  0 | maya: rste + rice
s 04nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: skar
s 08nov19 1 0 0  0 maya: iggl
s 13nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: maku
s 14nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: ekan
s 16nov19 0 1 8  4 mali: vulp | maya: chim x 8 mali chim x 4 - chimchar community day
s 21nov19 0 1 0  0 mali: magb
s 26nov19 1 0 0  0 maya: nidf
s 30nov19 2 0 0  0 maya: grim-a skar
s 02dec19 0 1 0  0 mali: patr
s 05dec19 1 0 0  0 maya: yanm
s 07dec19 2 0 0  0 maya: hors + scyt
s 09dec19 1 2 0  0 maya: burm-p-m & mali: onix + snor
s 10dec19 2 0 0  0 maya: glig + snea
s 12dec19 1 0 0  0 maya: scyt
s 22dec19 0 1 0  0 mali: elek
s 01jan20 0 1 0  0 mali: snea
s 10jan20 1 0 0  0 maya: pins
s 15jan20 2 0 0  0 maya: snub & oddi
s 19jan20 0 1 0  0 mali: bude | maya: pipl x 3 & mali pipl x 4
s 22jan20 0 0 0  1 | mali: heat
s 26jan20 0 0 2  0 | maya: latios and latias
s 29jan20 0 0 1  0 | maya: heat
s 01feb20 1 0 0  0 maya: magi
s 02feb20 0 1 4  2 mali: nidm | maya: minc x 4 & mali: minc x 2
s 10feb20 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt-a
s 11feb20 1 0 0  0 maya: seel
s 12feb20 1 0 0  0 maya: drow
s 15feb20 1 0 1  2 maya: yanm | maya: lick & mali: lick x 2
s 22feb20 1 0 4  3 maya: oddi | maya rhyh x 4 & mali rhyh x 3
s 29feb20 0 1 0  0 mali: eevee-partyhat
s 07mar20 1 0 0  1 maya: zigz | mali: dark
s 09mar20 1 0 0  0 maya: aero
s 14mar20 1 0 0  0 maya: medi
s 15mar20 0 1 0  0 mali: maku
s 19mar20 0 1 0  0 mali: aero
s 20mar20 0 2 0  0 mali: snea + ninc
s 21mar20 1 0 0  0 maya: grow
s 23mar20 2 0 0  0 maya: magn + snor
s 24mar20 0 1 0  0 mali: ratt
s 30mar20 1 1 0  0 mali: drow & maya natu
s 01apr20 2 0 0  0 maya: pooc + tail
s 04apr20 0 2 0  0 mali: sent + shel
s 05apr20 3 0 0  0 maya: nido-f + croa + aipo
s 13apr20 1 0 0  0 maya: exeg
s 15apr20 1 1 0  0 maya: pika-e & mali: pika-e
s 19apr20 0 0 13 5 | maya: anor + carv x 2 + chin + hors + krab + lile x 2 + mudk + pika-e + poli x 3 + tent & mali: chin x 3 + hors + tent - safari zone liverpool
s 22apr20 1 0 0  0 maya: illu
s 23apr20 0 1 0  0 mali: illu
s 24apr20 1 0 0  0 maya: volb
s 25apr20 0 1 7  4 mali: lill | maya: abra x 7 & mali: abra x 4
s 27apr20 0 1 0  0 mali: feeb
s 30apr20 0 1 0  0 mali: feeb
s 01may20 0 3 0  0 mali: chan + seel + poli
s 02may20 2 1 0  0 maya: char + nido-m & mali: tent
s 03may20 1 0 0  0 maya: pika-e
s 05may20 1 1 0  0 maya: hors & mali: hors
s 06may20 1 0 0  0 maya: exeg
s 09may20 0 0 14 2 | maya: bron + glig + krab + medi + mrmi + sand x 3 + seel + volt x 2 + yanm + zang x 2 & mali: volt + poli - safari zone philadelphia
s 14may20 1 1 0  0 mali: mach & maya: misd
s 16may20 1 1 0  0 mali: carv & maya: plus
s 17may20 2 1 0  0 maya: abso + pooc & mali: medi
s 20may20 2 0 0  0 maya: barb + wurm
s 22may20 2 0 0  0 maya: pika-e x 2
s 23may20 1 2 0  0 maya: snov & mali: croa + glam
s 24may20 0 1 4  5 mali: glam | maya: seed x 4 & mali: seed x 5 - seedot community day
s 25may20 1 0 0  0 maya: snov
s 27may20 0 1 0  0 mali: drif
s 29may20 1 0 0  0 maya: drif
s 30may20 1 0 0  0 maya: ratt
s 31may20 1 0 0  0 maya: veno
s 04jun20 0 1 0  0 mali: aero
s 20jun20 0 0 8  5 | maya: weed x 8 & mali weed x 5 - weedle community day
s 21jun20 0 1 0  0 mali: magm
s 22jun20 1 0 0  0 maya: clefairy
s 23jun20 1 0 0  0 maya: snea
s 27jun20 2 2 0  0 maya: ninc x 2 & mali: ninc x 2
s 28jun20 1 0 0  0 maya: wurm
s 29jun20 0 1 0  0 mali: shuc
s 30jun20 0 1 0  0 mali: grim-a
s 04jul20 0 1 0  0 mali: pika-e
s 05jul20 1 0 0  0 maya: hors
s 08jul20 1 0 0  0 maya: zuba
s 11jul20 1 0 0  0 maya: koff
s 17jul20 0 1 0  0 mali: wurm
s 19jul20 0 0 5  7 | maya: gast x 5 & mali gast x 5 - gastly community day
s 23jul20 0 1 0  0 mali: lill
s 25jul20 0 0 5  3 | maya: unoG + unoO + exeg-a + exeg + croa & mali: bude + qwil + mari
s 26jul20 0 0 14 7 | maya: bulb-pikahat x 2 + dura + magi + maro + heat x 2 + qwil x 2 + sabl + swab + tang x 2 + woob  & mali: bulb-pikahat + carv + gibl + maro + seve + tang + zang 
s 02aug20 0 0 0  1 | maya: rayq
s 08aug20 1 0 14 16 maya: misd | maya: magi x 14 & mali: deox-n & magi x 15 event
s 10aug20 1 0 0  0 maya: star
s 11aug20 0 1 0  0 mali: sabl
s 12aug20 0 1 0  0 mali: solr | maya: deox
s 14aug20 0 2 0  0 mali: star & balt
s 15aug20 0 0 0  2 | mali: gene x 2
s 16aug20 0 0 0  1 | mali: rose - go fest makeup
s 17aug20 0 0 2  0 | maya: gene x 2
s 21aug20 0 1 0  0 mali: misd
s 23aug20 1 0 0  0 maya: turt
s 31aug20 1 0 0  0 maya: turt
s 01sep20 0 1 0  0 mali: lota
s 02sep20 1 1 0  0 maya: magn & mali: tedd
s 09sep20 0 1 0  0 mali: zuba
s 13sep20 0 1 0  0 mali: dusk
s 14sep20 1 0 0  0 maya: scyt
s 16sep20 0 1 0  0 mali: veno
s 20sep20 0 1 0  0 mali: pido | maya: pory x 9 & mali: pory x 2 event
s 22sep20 1 0 0  0 maya: duns
s 23sep20 1 0 0  0 maya: duns
s 25sep20 0 1 0  0 mali: wail
s 28sep20 0 1 0  0 mali: exeg-a
s 03oct20 2 0 0  0 maya: kric & skit
s 07oct20 1 0 0  0 maya: croa-h
s 08oct20 0 1 0  0 mali: kric
s 13oct20 0 0 1  0 | maya: gira-o
s 15oct20 1 0 0  0 maya: houn
s 17oct20 1 0 0  0 maya: vulp
s 19oct20 1 0 0  0 maya: ekan
s 20oct20 1 0 0  0 maya: houndoom
s 23oct20 1 0 0  0 maya: bulb
s 25oct20 1 3 0  0 maya: spir & mali: drif x 3
s 30oct20 1 0 0  0 maya: shup
s 18nov20 0 0 1  1 | maya: viri & mali: terr
s 19nov20 1 0 0  0 maya: drow-shadow
s 26nov20 1 0 0  0 maya: gold
s 28nov20 0 0 1  2 | maya: nido-m & mali nido-f x 2 - nidoran event
s 29nov20 0 1 0  0 mali: gold
s 01dec20 1 0 0  0 maya: pidg
s 03dec20 0 1 0  0 mali: woob
s 04dec20 0 1 0  0 mali: lapr
s 07dec20 0 1 0  0 mali: pidg
s 10dec20 1 1 0  0 maya: woop & mali: woop
s 12dec20 0 0 1  1 | maya: elec & mali: regirock - community day year end/regirock raid weekend event
s 13dec20 0 0 0  1 | mali: regirock
s 14dec20 0 1 0  0 mali: woob
s 18dec20 1 0 0  0 mali: wobb
s 19dec20 2 0 0  0 maya: cubc + vulp-a
s 20dec20 0 1 0  0 mali: pika-explorer
s 21dec20 1 0 0  0 maya: cubc
s 23dec20 1 1 0  0 maya: jigg & mali: cubc-e
s 26dec20 0 1 1  0 mali: stan-e | maya: regice - weekend event
s 17dec20 0 1 0  0 mali: deli-e
s 29dec20 2 0 0  0 maya: vulp-a + deli-e
s 30dec20 1 0 0  0 maya: pika-e
s 31dec20 1 0 0  0 maya: cubc-e
s 01jan20 0 1 0  0 mali: slow-e
s 02jan20 2 0 0  0 maya: pidg + gold
s 12jan20 1 0 0  0 maya: pins-shadow
s 13jan20 0 1 0  0 mali: glam
s 15jan20 1 0 0  0 maya: buiz
s 16jan20 0 0 20 20 | maya: mach x 20 & mali: 20 x mach - machamp community day
s 22jan20 1 0 0  0 maya: medi
s 23jan20 1 0 0  0 maya: aron


Lucky trades

This reports the distribution (histogram) of lucky trades since I started keeping track of them. The first line below gives the start trade, the end trade, the total trades made, the number of luckies encountered, and the average number of trades made to obtain a lucky trade.

The second group of lines gives the histogram values. The first column is the range when the lucky trade occurred and the second is count. For instance, the number of luckies encountered between 0-10 trades is given in first line, between 11-20 trades in the second line, and so on. The one thing I got out of this is that if you don't encounter a lucky by the 20th trade or so, it might not happen for a while (as many as 100 trades, which is when I decided to start keeping track, but easily 30+ and sometimes more). Most of the luckies happen before the 20th trade (which is natural given the odds) but if it doesn't, best to keep trading throwaways until you encounter the lucky. This is especially relevant for the timing of legendary/special trades.

The third group twenty lines shows the frequency of when the trade becomes lucky. First column is count and second is the number of trades made when the lucky happened. In other words, a trade became lucky after [second column] number of trades [first column] times.

Start: 2310 | End: 5960 | Total: 3650 | Luckies: 192 | Average: 19.01

 0-10 70
11-20 53
21-30 25
31-40 25
41-50 9
51-60 4
61-   6

  20 1
   9 3
   8 16
   8 12
   7 9
   7 5
   7 4
   7 19
   7 11
   6 8
   5 7
   5 35
   5 29
   5 18
   5 15
   4 44
   4 39
   4 20
   4 2
   4 14
   3 6
   3 38


Pseudointellectual ramblings || Ram Samudrala || me@ram.org